Archive for July, 2008
Romania: Prudent hike from the NBR
The Romanian central bank (NBR) today announced that it has hiked its key policy rate by 25bp to 10.25%. The consensus expectation was for unchanged rates. We view todayÂ’s hike as prudent, as it indicates that the NBR is not letting down its guard on inflation. This is good news for the longer term prospects for Romanian markets. The Romanian leu strengthened on the back of the hike.
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Poland: Unchanged rates, but perhaps time to soften the rhetoric
Completely as expected, the Polish central bank (NBP) today announced that it has kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.00% after its Monetary Policy Council (RPP) meeting. Inflation remains well above the NBP's inflation target of 2½% +/-1 percentage point, and we expect this will still be the case well into 2009. Furthermore, with the Polish economy still growing strongly and wage pressures remaining high, we do not expect the NBP to turn dovish anytime soon. That said, we do expect the
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Decide to Believe
People all around the world desire to have better things happen in their life. The interesting fact is that many of them have had better things happen; however they just did not stop to enjoy it. As traders, we need to evaluate how we are doing and then if we are doing well. enjoy it. If we are not, then we need to be courageous enough to adjust. Change is good if we believe in ourselves. Belief is the strongest element of any journey. Traders who believe will always perform better than those
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Czech Republic: CNB still on hold
Despite still strong inflationary pressures the Czech central bank (CNB) today decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, where it has been since its previous hike in February 2008. There is no doubt that the Czech korunaÂ’s (CZK) record strength and the expected cooling of the national economy are the main reasons why the CNB today decided to keep interest rates on hold despite the fact that inflation still remains well above the CNB target. Certainly, the majority opinion among
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Speak Loudly And Carry A Small Stick
As expected, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 2 percent at today’s FOMC meeting. The wording in the Fed’s statement is a touch more hawkish than in previous meetings and one member of the FOMC, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, dissented in favor of raising interest rates. The Fed is in a tough spot, with no clear good choices to make. Raising interest rates might help curb some of the fears about escalating inflation but would not likely have a material
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Hungary: Central bank kept the base rate on hold at 8.50%
At its today monetary meeting, the monetary council kept the base rate on hold at 8.50%, in line with market expectations. In its statements the council has maintained its relatively hawkish tone by repeating that they are committed to the 3% inflation target. Tight monetary conditions help a decline in inflation and curb the possible indirect effects of inflationary expectations. The statement again pointed out continued inflation risks, stemming from global food, oil and raw materials
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Back to the Future
If you could go back in time to the very first day you began trading, would you do anything different? What if you had the knowledge you had right now after months or years of trading experience. Would you make some changes? By analyzing what we do and what results we are getting and then being open to changing our habits or actions, we will always have a better opportunity for enhancing our skills. So, let's go "Back to the Future" and look at what we might want to do if we decide to re-start
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Turkey: TCMB delivers expected rate hike
The Turkish central bank (TCMB) has announced that it has raised its key borrowing rate by 50bp to 16.75% - in line with our and consensus expectations. The TCMB has therefore delivered its third rate hike of 50bp in as many rate decision meetings, reversing most of its H2 2007 cutting. The TCMB has kept its key lending rate unchanged at 20.25% thus reducing the gap between the two key rates due to liquidity conditions.
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FOMC Minutes of June 24-25
• Members recognized that risks to growth persisted and that risks to inflation had risen • Less consensus on risk assessments. All members saw rising risks, but some viewed the balance of risks tilted towards inflation. • The Board is managing growing uncertainty about the outlook, thus justifying a “wait and see” policy. One day after Bernanke's testimony in Congress, The Fed released the minutes for last month's FOMC meeting. As it was expected after the hawkish statement that accompanied
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Winning and Losing are Both Part of the Power of Probabilities
Winning, Losing, Money and Success are just a few of the many aspects of life that people use to determine the worth of others as well as themselves. In reality, it is not these results, but how we respond to them that will make our journey one that we enjoy and desire to continue doing, or whether we quit. As a trader, the understanding of probabilities and how to make them work for us instead of against us will provide great power for you as you move forward in your trading career. Listen to
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