Archive for September, 2008
Hungary: Balanced central bank in wait-and-see mode
As both we and the consensus expected the Hungarian central bank (MNB) today left its key policy rate unchanged at 8.50%, the third successive meeting at which they have remained so after a total of 100bp in hikes since March 2008. As the following statement shows MNB was fairly balanced in its comments. In particular it said: "The monetary council sees subdued growth and slow disinflation in 2010, in line with the forecasts presented in the new inflation report. According to the base case
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Czech Republic: On hold, but more cuts in the pipeline
The Czech central bank (CNB) today decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% - this was in line with our expectation and consensus forecasts. CNB gave no comment on its decision but is scheduled to hold a news conference at CEST 14.00. Consumer inflation soared over the last year - see chart below - due to rising food and energy prices, an easing of rent regulations, and tax hikes. Latest data show that inflation was 6.4% y/y in August, and we expect it to drop to the central
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Introducing persistence in EMU inflation analysis
● We add a new tool to our inflation-watch instruments for the euro area: a persistence-weighted (PW) measure of core inflation. ● Contrary to standard measures of core inflation that strip out the most erratic and volatile components, PW core inflation gives more weight to the items of the HICP basket displaying a higher degree of persistence. ● This methodology delivers a core measure that allows capturing the more lasting component of price increases. Therefore, the PW core
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Norway: Norges bank in a ‘wait-and-see’ stance
As widely expected Norges Bank today kept the monetary policy key rate unchanged at 5.75%. Hence, all focus was on the accompanying press release and the press briefing at 14.45 CET. In our view Norges Bank was relatively neutral and very cautious about giving any guidance to the market about future rate changes. Norges Bank is in a ‘wait-and-see’ or neutral stance.
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Poland: NBP leaves key rate unchanged
The Polish central bank's (NBP) monetary policy council (RPP) decided at its meeting today to leave the key policy rate unchanged at 6% for the third consecutive month. The announcement was no surprise and in line with our and the consensus expectation. The key question at the press conference later today (15:00 CET) will be whether the NBP will signal a hike in October. In our view the RPP is more or less equally split between those members who favour further monetary tightening and those who
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Evolution of a hedge fund manager
This article is taken from the Trader's Journal magazine (Aug 2008 issue) The author, Kevin Teeple has appeared as a featured expert on CNN, Bloomberg, the FOX Network in addition to the NASDAQ’s market site in New York City. Days after the attack on the World Trade Center, Kevin was honored to be one of a select few appearing on the CNN Financial Network to respond to the questions and concerns of Americans regarding their investments, the market and the economy. Kevin Teeple shares the steps
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Japan: Rates unchanged, slightly softer view
The Bank of Japan (BoJ), as expected, left its leading O/N target rate unchanged at 0.5% in a unanimous decision at today's monetary meeting. BoJ's "View of the Economy" and the press briefing was slightly soft but overall there were only minor changes compared to the July view. Looking more closely at the details, there were only minor changes in the BoJ "View of the Economy", now released as part of the policy statement. The August statement "economic growth has been sluggish" has replaced
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Japan: Unchanged interest rate and slightly softer BoJ statement
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) this morning as expected left its leading interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in a unanimous decision. The statement was only slightly softer than the August statement. According to BoJ, tensions in the financial market have increased, but its view of the economy is largely unchanged.
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Japan: Unchanged interest rate and slightly softer BoJ statement
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) this morning as expected left its leading interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in a unanimous decision. The statement was only slightly softer than the August statement. According to BoJ, tensions in the financial market have increased, but its view of the economy is largely unchanged.
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FOMC September Meeting — No Change
The Fed Feels There Is Already Enough Stimulus In The Pipeline The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at today’s FOMC meeting and altered the policy statement only slightly from the August 5th meeting. The Fed’s move is not entirely surprising in that most economists expected policy to remain on hold. Events in the financial markets had moved the odds of a rate cut to about 50-50 this morning and Wall Street was initially disappointed by today’s move. That said, the Fed’s list of
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