Archive for October, 2008
BoJ cuts by 20 bps and revises growth sharply down
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) this morning cut its leading O/N target interest rate by 20 bps to 0.3% in a split 4-4 decision. Three dissenting board members voted for cutting the O/N target rate by 25 bps (most likely Suda, Nakamura and Kamezaki) and one member voted for leaving the leading interest rate unchanged at 0.5% (most likely Mizuno). The rest of the board, including board Governor Shirakawa and his two deputy governors, voted for a 20 bp cut. At the press briefing Shirakawa said that they
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Developing the Trader’s Mind: Strategies for Long Term Success - ITC 2008 presentation
Summary I’m different. The Market will always come back Heart Of Darkness You have to work on your mind every day Excessive idealism Loss aversion Accumulation Risk & Preference Patience Gratitude Generosity Rob Booker's presentation at the International Traders Conference (ITC), held in Barcelona in October '08
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Japan: “Solidarity” cut from BoJ tomorrow
For a change, the outcome of tomorrow's monetary meeting at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not be trivial. We now believe BoJ will cut interest rates by 25 bp tomorrow. This is despite comments from Deputy Governor Yamaguchi earlier this week that didn't indicate an imminent rate cut - instead, he stuck to the existing BoJ line that monetary policy is already "very accommodative".
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Fed appears more concerned on economic growth
FOMC Meeting October 29th Fed appears more concerned on economic growth In contrast, the outlook for inflation has improved FOMC expects that the rate cut along with other measures, will help to alleviate the financial crisis However, members expect a slow recovery FOMC lowered its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1%. The move was widely expected by market participants. On the economic front, the statement remained pessimistic as it stressed that “the pace of economic
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FOMC October Meeting — 50 Basis Point Ease
Recession, Lower Inflation, Financial Workout Drives Fed Policy Today the Federal Reserve lowered its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1.00 percent, the lowest rate in more than four years. Monetary policy continues to adjust to an environment of economic recession, lower inflation expectations and the imbalance of asset valuations. While talk of recession and credit dislocations are not new, lower gas prices, along with the dip in broader consumer prices, opened the
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Norway: Less frontloaded than expected
As widely expected, Norges Bank slashed its policy rate at the monetary policy meeting today by 50bp to 4.75%. But we note that Norges Bank considered cutting rates by just 25bp. Norges Bank said that they expect the policy rate to be in the interval 4–5% in the period up to the publication of the next monetary policy report on March 2009 - unless the economy is exposed to more shocks. In other words they have taken the severity of the credit crisis into account. It indicates just one more rate
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China: Another 27bp interest rate cut
The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) today cut the benchmark 1-year lending rate by 27bp to 6.66% and the benchmark 1-year deposit rate by 27bp to 3.60%. However, somewhat surprisingly, the reserve requirement ration was left unchanged. There is some speculation in the market that this is the first step in a series of coordinated international rate cuts coming this and next week. With the third interest rate cut in just six weeks PBoC is now easing aggressively. We expect another four 27bp
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Gaining an Edge with Sentiment Indicators - ITC 2008 presentation
Summary I. Trends – A Produce of Psychology II. Sentiment Indicators III. Elliott Wave Introduction and Setups IV. Speculation as a Fine Art V. Forecasts Jamie Saettele 's presentation at the International Traders Conference (ITC), held in Barcelona in October '08
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FOMC: Preview of policy meeting
Tomorrow at 19:15 CET the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its policy rate decision. Sentiment in global equity markets continues to be very negative and the improvement in USD money market rates has slowed to a snail's pace since Thursday. In our view, the current backdrop will keep the Fed from disappointing market expectations, which would risk amplifying the downbeat sentiment. Consequently we have marked down our Fed forecast and now expect the Fed to cut rates by
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Euroland: ECB to ease faster and more
We have changed our interest rate projection for the ECB. We are now looking for it to lower the key lending rate by 50 bp in November 2008 and by a further 25 bp in each of January, March and June 2009. Previously we expected the ECB to lower rates by 25 bp in December 2008 and by a further 25 bp in both February and April 2009, and stated the risk of a further 25 bp rate cut by June. The precise timing of the rate changes is difficult to determine, and in these turbulent times timing is
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