Archive for May, 2009
FOMC: preview of policy meeting
On Wednesday, 29 April, at 20:15 CET the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its policy decision. In line with consensus, we expect the FOMC to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged in the interval from 0.00-0.25%. Focus will be on the FOMC’s decision on alternative easing measures. We do not expect a scale-up of current credit easing measures or the announcement of any new ones. The statement is nevertheless likely to keep the door open for scaled-up credit easing if it should
No comments
Poland: NBP keeps rates on hold
As expected, the Polish central bank today kept its key policy rate on hold at 3.75% We expect one more rate cut this year, but the NBP is likely to wait until after the next inflation report in June. A renewed zloty-sell-off could cut short the easing cycle. Details Totally as expected, the Polish central bank today announced that it will keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. This was both the market consensus and our expectation. The decision has no visible impact on Polish markets.
No comments
Hungary: NBH base rate announcement
CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%) At its today’s rate setting meeting, the monetary council of the CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%), in line with expectations. The statement of the council does not contain many surprises. „The monetary council decided to keep the base rate on hold after considering the outlook for the real economy and inflation as well as the latest financial market developments. The base rate may be reduced if the recent improvement in sentiment continues, and if
No comments
You Need To Learn How To Dance In The Rain
Every trader will experience storms during their trading career. You might have days or even weeks without any storms, but they will come. Violent movements, large losses, markets that react opposite than your strategy tells you will happen and so much more. We cannot keep these situations from happening; however we can make a decision to either wait for the storms to pass or step out and dance in the rain. If we are planning on waiting until there are no storms, no struggles, no
No comments
FOMC Minutes April 28-29, 2009
Signs of stabilization in economic and financial activity Risks of deflation have diminished Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged The FOMC agreed that the near-term economic outlook has improved, but there are still “significant downside risks.” In addition, financial market conditions have strengthened but the system remains vulnerable to shocks and credit markets are still weak. Staff revised up its forecasts for 2H09 and 2010 after revising them down in March in response to
No comments
Hungary: NBH base rate announcement
CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%) At its today’s rate setting meeting, the monetary council of the CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%), in line with expectations. The statement of the council does not contain many surprises. The council decided to leave the base rate unchanged, after considering the outlook for the real economy and inflation as well as the need to preserve the stability of the financial intermediary system. They continue to expect that the Hungarian economy will be
No comments
Croatia: Moody’s rating action
Moody's downgrades local currency government bond rating to Baa3 from Baa2 On April 17, Moody's decided to downgrade the local currency rating from Baa2 to Baa3, while the foreign currency rating (Baa3) and outlook (stable) were confirmed. The rationale for Moody's rating action is the lagging and likely inadequate authorities' response to the deterioration of the growth and budget outlook. Key issues were the feasibility of achievement of the fiscal target, which has been set at 1.6% of GDP,
No comments
Hungary: NBH base rate
CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%) As expected, the monetary council of the CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%). The statement of the council will be published and the governor’s press conference will start at 15 pm.
No comments
Step Outside Of Your Comfort Zone
Each of us has a comfort zone. That area where everything seems to work like we desire, stress is almost non-existent and we can basically move forward with our eyes closed and not worry. This might sound like the best way to trade, however, if we never strive to grow, to adjust, to refine to get better, we will actually fade away and regress instead of remaining comfortable. It is a challenge to try new things because once we step outside of the area where we know 100% what we are doing, we
No comments
Turkey: TCMB cuts key rates by 75bp
Today, 16 April, the Turkish central bank cut its key policy rate (the borrowing rate) by 75bp to 9.75% and its less important lending rate by 75bp to 12.25%. The bank’s decision was slightly more aggressive than expected by watchers – the consensus expectation was for a 50bp cut to 10.0%. This was also our expectation. Going forward we expect the TCMB to bring the borrowing rate down to 9.0%, before halting the rate cutting cycle. Details The Turkish central bank (TCMB) surprised the market
No comments