Archive for July, 2009
ECB preview: It could be a non-event
We are confident that the ECB will leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 1.0%. We expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged for a prolonged period before they begin to hike. The focus will therefore be on the press conference. We will look for signs that the ECB rhetoric is becoming more positive, but we don’t expect much. We do not anticipate the ECB to announce additional measures or top up on already announced measures. All in all, this might be a relatively dull ECB meeting - for a change.
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The Psychology of Trading - The Mind of the Market
What is the purpose of the foreign exchange market, or any trading market for that matter? It seems like a simple question with a simple answer. The purpose is to facilitate exchange, to permit participants to sell and buy commodities, equities or futures and to trade one currency for another. But that simple definition disguises a world of complexity. If two parties wish to conduct an exchange, of one currency for another or of an equity or bond for a sum of cash the first question is at what
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ECB – In search of the exit after the year that looks like a century
This period, one year ago the favorite game of market practitioners and observers was to blame and attack the ECB for increasing the refi rate to 4.25% and triggering the most abrupt market reaction since the onset of the single currency. Inflation was at 4% and overnight the market started to price in other 2-3 rate hikes before the end of 2008. Probably surprised by the spike in bond market volatility and by the massive tightening in financial conditions, the ECB immediately cared to flag the
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US: Fed’s deflation fears are easing
The FOMC statement was less dovish than we had expected. The committee decided to retain the target range for the fed funds rate and leave the size, timing and scope of the Fed’s security purchase programmes unchanged. In general, the committee has become less worried about deflation and more optimistic on growth. Still, inflation pressures are regarded as absent with slack in the economy set to keep cost pressures in check despite the recent rise in commodity prices. The statement repeated
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US: FOMC - No change in rates
No change in rates, no change in economic outlook, no additional quantitative easing and no liquidity exit from the Fed. Four negatives in the the FOMC statement but only one seemed to register with the currency market, no additional quantitative easing. Treasury rates moved modestly higher and the dollar rallied. The FOMC "expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time", and "that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of federal funds for an extended
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Czech Republic: CNB keeps interest rates on hold
At today’s monetary policy setting meeting the Czech central bank decided to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 1.50%. Details The Czech central bank (CNB) surprised markets at its monetary policy setting meeting today when it decided to maintain its key policy rate at 1.50% even though most market participants had expected a further 25bp rate cut. We thought the CNB would leave interest rates on hold. Market reaction: EUR/CZK is marginally higher while 2y yields increased approximately
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FOMC: Preview June Rate Decision
Current Base Rate: 0.00% to 0.25% Consensus: 0.00% to 0.25% Expect a more sanguine economic outlook, though will likely say recovery to be slow and protracted Show a commitment to long term ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and play down inflation in the near term FOMC likely to keep its asset purchase program targets unchanged; though could spring a surprise by altering the size/balance of Treasury and mortgage securities it purchases after the recent spike higher in yields FOMC could outline
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Hungary: CB kept the base rate unchanged
CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%) At its today’s rate setting meeting, the monetary council of the CB kept the base rate unchanged (9.50%), in line with expectations. The statement of the council will be released and the governor’s press conference will start at 3 pm.
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FOMC: preview of policy meeting
On Wednesday, at 20:15 CET, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its policy decision. In line with consensus we expect the FOMC to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in the range of 0.00-0.25%. The meeting will be a balancing act. On the one hand, there are members of the FOMC who fear that inflation expectations will run rampant unless the Fed states that it is ready with exit strategies. On the other hand, other members worry about the market’s aggressive expectations
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FOMC Minutes June 23-24, 2009
Economic activity has stabilized further, but risks remain Core inflation is expected to remain low Committee will maintain the target rate of 0 to 0.25% The FOMC announced that economic contraction had subsided and downside risks to economic growth had diminished, but threats remain. Participants also judged that financial market developments have been positive, but could be attributed to support from government programs rather than solid fundamentals, and credit markets remain tight amid
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