The Psychological Utility of Technical Analysis
Today I am starting an occasional series on one of the most fascinating and essential topics in currency trading; the interaction between the psychology of the market and the decisions of the individual trader. I hope these observations are useful; reader comments are welcome. Technical analysis is sometimes studied as if it contains a grain of secret knowledge or portrays an intrinsic truth about currency movements. Often it is said that a specific chart formation will produce a specific
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Switzerland: SNB rate decision June 18th
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday June 18th.The SNB is expected to hold rate policy steady at 0.00%-0.75%.Recent Swiss economic data confirms deteriorating Swiss economy and declining inflation. Monday, Switzerland reported that producer and import prices declined the most in two decades. Swiss Q1 GDP contracted at its fastest pace in 15 years and Swiss May inflation fell at its fastest rate in 50 years. Swiss exports fell 14% since the start of
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BOE Preview: June interest rate decision
MPC is expected to vote unanimously to leave rates on hold at 0.5% and leave the QE programme size unchanged at GBP 125bln Today’s announcement is unlikely to spring any major surprises with focus again on discussions surrounding the QE program following the Bank’s brief statement on June 4th that the current programme would take another 2 months to complete. Recent economic data The MPC will likely pay note to the glimmers of improvement that have been seen in various economic indicators
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Japan: BoJ slightly more positive on the economy
Bank of Japan (BoJ) as expected left its leading interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and did not see the need for further non-conventional easing. BoJ turned marginally more positive on the economy. However, the main message continues to be that the economy is bottoming out. The focus at the future monetary meetings will mainly be on changes in BoJ’s view of the economy. The next major change in outlook by the bank should be to regard the economy as expanding. However, this change is unlikely to
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Japan: Bank of Japan preview
With signs that the economy is stabilising and financial stress easing, we do not expect BoJ to announce new quantitative easing measures in connection with the close of its monetary meeting tomorrow. BoJ’s view of the economy is expected to be marginally more positive. However, a substantial change in its view of the economy is more likely to happen at the July meeting. We expect BoJ to start tightening in Q3 10. However, a ‘technical’ rate hike to improve the functionality of the money
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