We are confident that the ECB will leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 1.0%. We expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged for a prolonged period before they begin to hike. The focus will therefore be on the press conference. We will look for signs that the ECB rhetoric is becoming more positive, but we don’t expect much. We do not anticipate the ECB to announce additional measures or top up on already announced measures. All in all, this might be a relatively dull ECB meeting - for a change.

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To calm fears about imminent monetary tightening, the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) yesterday evening released a statement in which it reiterated that the monetary stance will remain unchanged and it is not planning to reintroduce lending controls across the board. However, the statement does not exclude that PBoC could make monetary policy less accommodative by continuing to remove liquidity from the interbank market. Major change in monetary policy is unlikely to happen this year. Details

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The Polish central bank (NBP) decided to keep its key rate unchanged at 3.50% at today’s monetary policy meeting, which was in line with our and consensus expectation. The market reaction was very limited. NBP said it will hold a news briefing at 16:00 (CEST) to explain its decision. We expect the NBP to signal that it still has an easing bias, but that it will take a wait-andsee stance in the coming months as it assesses the economic situation and the impact from recent cuts. We expect a 25bp

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This article is taken from the Forex Journal (August 2009 issue). The author, Jeffrey Kennedy , is the Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International (EWI). With more than 15 years of experience as a technical analyst, he writes and edits Futures Junctures, EWI’s premier commodity forecasting package. If you have been trading for some time, you have no doubt felt like an invisible ‘hand’ sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. Jeffrey Kennedy looks at the five

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This article is taken from the Forex Journal (August 2009 issue). The author, Jeffrey Kennedy , is the Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International (EWI). With more than 15 years of experience as a technical analyst, he writes and edits Futures Junctures, EWI’s premier commodity forecasting package. If you have been trading for some time, you have no doubt felt like an invisible ‘hand’ sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. Jeffrey Kennedy looks at the five

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The monetary council surprised the market today. After six month pause, the council cut the base rate by 100bp, to 8.50%, while the consensus (with us) had expected just 50bp reduction in the base rate. The statement of the monetary council has emphasized three important factors. (1) inflation is expected to be below the mid-term target on the horizon relevant for monetary policy, however, it is likely to be high over the next twelve month, due to the indirect tax changes, adding upside risks

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This article is taken from the Forex Journal (July 2009 issue). The author, Boris Schlossberg , began his Wall Street trading career more than 20 years ago at Drexel Burhnam Lambert. There, he traded nearly every type of financial product on the market in the United States from equities and options to stock index futures and foreign exchange. His innate ability to analyze market information and use it to trade has helped him become an industry-recognized, “go to” trading professional. These

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This article is taken from the Forex Journal (May 2009 issue) The author, Johan Kriek, started his trading career when he was just nineteen years old. After finishing school, Johan studied Computer Engineering and started to work for Forex Trader South Africa as an IT specialist. Within one year, Johan advanced from IT Specialist to lecturing and conducting seminars Gradually, Johan became an FX Specialist and conducted various courses in South Africa for Forex Worldwide Training and Support.

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Bernanke gave his semi-annual testimony before Congress today, stressing that “monetary policy remains focused on fostering economic recovery.” Although Bernanke cited some improvement in financial conditions and economic prospects, he believes that household spending could be an important downside risk to the outlook because job insecurity, tight credit and home price declines could limit gains in consumer spending. In terms of inflation, he said that the FOMC participants believe that it

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The Bank of Canada (BOC) will hold its next policy meeting on July 21st. At the April policy meeting the BOC lowered interest rates to a record low of .25% and said they would keep the rate at this level through June 2010 because inflation pressures remain low. The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain steady rate policy and refrain from implementing quantitative ease at tomorrow’s policy meeting. The Bank of Canada expects the Canadian economy to improve by year-end and the BOC will likely

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