Archive for November, 2009
ECB preview: Waiting for the master plan
The ECB is expected to leave the refinancing rate unchanged at the Governing Council meeting on Thursday. We expect the tone at the press conference to turn slightly more positive (again) as both soft and hard data continues to improve further, but Trichet is unlikely to signal any rate hikes for the near future. Trichet might hint that the ECB intends to begin to roll back unconventional measures next year, but we do not expect him to give anything like a master plan or even an indication of
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BoC Policy Monitor: BoC is more upbeat on the economic outlook
As expected the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25 % and maintained its conditional commitment to maintain it at this level until the end of Q2 2010. Although the commitment is maintained, the tone of the press release was significantly more upbeat when it comes to both global and Canadian economic prospects. Whereas our central bank previously saw early strength in domestic demand as “just†a bringing forward of household expenditures, it now sees the recent rebound in
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Preview of BOE & BOC policy meetings
BOE meeting The Bank of England (BOE) will meet on Thursday, September 10th. At the August BOE policy meeting the BOE decided to hold interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.5% and announced a surprise expansion of quantitative ease. The BOE increased its quantitative ease program from £125 bln to £175 bln. The MPC minutes for the August meeting indicated that the BOE policy board was split over the decision to expand quantitative ease with three board members including BOE Governor King
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BOE and ECB: Preview of Thursday’s meetings
The Bank of England (BOE) will hold a policy meeting on Thursday November 5th. At the October policy meeting the BOE elected to maintain the current level of interest rates at a record low 0.5% and asset purchases at £175bln. The BOE indicated that they would keep the scale of the asset purchase plan under review. Two recent UK economic reports generated concern about the outlook for the UK economy and may encourage the BOE to expand its asset purchase plan at the November policy meeting. UK
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Preview: FOMC November rate decision
The FOMC is expected to keep interest rates in a 0-0.25% range at the November meeting and could refrain from major changes to the accompanying statement after much speculation last week. On the whole, analysts believe the Fed will stick to the wording: rates to stay low for an ‘extended period’ for at least one more month as inflationary pressures continue to remain subdued due to the enormous slack in the economy and high unemployment levels. Though, some analysts believe there is still a
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FOMC: steady as they go
...Fed upgrades eco outlook marginally and keeps subdued inflation view intact ...while it continues to anticipate exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period of time ...low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations conditions explaining current policy stance ... No word about timing exit strategy and minor change asset purchase program FOMC chooses for status quo The FOMC concluded its two day meeting with the
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US: The Fed still binded to a zero interest-rate policy
Despite the improving economic backdrop, the U.S. central bank reiterated its commitment to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period of time. More specifically, the FOMC emphasized the low rates of resource utilization (read unemployment rate) and subdued inflation trends (both current and expected) as the conditions that warrant keeping unchanged the current policy stance. It is worth noting that the press release continued to allude to the close link between business investment
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Preview: BOE rate/QE decision
Rates are currently 0.5% (all analysts going for unchanged) QE currently stands at GBP 175bln (consensus for GBP +50bln, ranging from unchanged to GBP +50bln) King(dom) of QE Despite widespread disparity concerning the accuracy of the -0.4% Q3 GDP data, there is a growing agreement between finance professionals that the BoE will vote to expand the size of its QE program. However this time it seem that the decision will be mainly driven by the mounting political pressure from the UK government
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ECB pre-announces gradual exit from emergency liquidity measures
ECB notes improvement in European activity but remains relaxed about inflation. Trichet hints that ECB won’t renew 12 month funding to banking system after December Markets may think ECB “exit strategy†implies earlier interest rate increases, but… ...Economic outlook still uncertain and the Bank of England eased policy further today. Reducing emergency support to the financial system will be a delicate operation. So we think ECB rates still unlikely to rise before September 2010 at the
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Preview: ECB November rate decision and press conference
Rates currently at 1.00% with all analysts look for no change today at 1245GMT Focus will be on press conference at 1330GMT Latest non-event from the ECB In today’s meeting the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1% and signal that financial armageddon has been avoided but the path towards recovery is yet to find firm footing. As such, the press conference will be scrutinised for potential changes in the stance regarding the monetary policy given latest improvements in economic
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